A recipe for disaster means a situation likely to lead to failure, danger, or serious trouble. The correct answer is this meaning because the expression is used figuratively, not only by its literal words.

Examples:

• Ignoring safety rules is a recipe for disaster.
• In an HSC essay, A recipe for disaster can express this meaning: a situation likely to lead to failure, danger, or serious trouble.
• When this expression appears in a passage, connect A recipe for disaster with the idea of a situation likely to lead to failure, danger, or serious trouble.